Sunday 31 August 2014

How Cheap Is STATS ChipPac?

Rosesyrup Research

How Cheap Is STATS ChipPac?

Target price: $1.64 + (Possible Control Premium)

Upside: 124%

Call: Buy for Risk Arbritage Only !


I received 7 requests to value this firm, STATS ChipPac, which has a business in packaging processor chips. The company has recently received 2 potential takeover offers from two Chinese firms, though one of them has already dropped out from the negotiation (read the news here). As a result of the potential M&A, the company share price has nearly doubled after the news was released. 




Valuation

The purpose of this write up is to value STATS ChipPac and estimate the potential price the Chinese acquirer is likely to pay in the event of an agreement is reached on the M&A.

Model: FCFF

Assume growth of 8% till 2016 and 3.9% therefore. Growth rates are forecast by Chips industry experts.




Justification

The result of my calculation is pretty reasonable and conservative  due to the following reason: 

  1. The growth rate of 8% and 3.9% are really estimate for the European and US market. According to the experts, Asia firm will do much better and STATS ChipPac's business is largely located in Asia. Thus the growth rates I used are conservative.
  2. Temasek Holding paid $1.75 for STATS ChipPac in 2007. This is pretty much close to our target price of $1.64. It was higher than our target price probably due to control premium Temasek paid for owning majority (83%) share in the company.
  3. Like Temasek, the China Acquirer would need to pay a control premium above $1.64 in order to acquire huge amount of STATS ChipPac share from Temasek.
  4. China Huatian, one of the potential acquirer dropped out of the bid citing "acquisition conditions were not favourable" as the reason (read the news article here). Being "not favourable" probably mean that the acquisition price quoted to Huatian is much higher than what the share is currently trading now. This is in line with our target price which show that STATS ChipPac is really worth 124% than currently price.
Recommendation 


  1. Risk Arbritage strategy: Buy the counter now in expectation that  Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology Co will ultimately accept Temasek Holding's offer and buy STATS ChipPac.
  2. If the negotiation fails and no longer any party is interested in STATS ChipPac, sell the stock and cut losses. 
  3. Do not hold for long term, because the industry STATS ChipPac is in is highly competitive and often more favourable to new entrant than incumbents. You can read more about the industry dynamics from Motley Fool Article here.
  4. For me personally, I will only put in small amount of capital (10k or less) and I am prepared to cut once the talk fails. 

















(Chinese Article On) Ying Li International Real Estate

Found this article written in Mandarin  (sorry can't find any English version of the article)

Source: http://cq.focus.cn/news/2014-08-29/5463578.html

26万方新加坡风情洋房受热捧

在重庆,一提到英利地产,大多数人脑海会浮现出未来国际、纽约纽约等一栋栋城市商业地标建筑。作为重庆首家新加坡上市的品牌房企,英利地产一直以载入史册的建筑作品书写着地标专家的商业传奇,在业内更是有着“商业教父”的美誉。近期,英利地产再次聚焦了全城都市精英的目光,以26万方新加坡风情洋房社区的创新之作——英利狮城花园
惊艳亮相北部新区奥宜麦商圈。
  英利狮城花园项目效果图
21年造数座地标
  英利铸就商业地产传奇
  在地产开发业界,流传着一句俗话:做住宅是小学生,做别墅是中学生,做商业地产、写字楼则需要大学生、研究生水平。而打造世界级企业总部的高端写字楼,更要求开发企业必须具备行业翘楚的领袖气质。
  英利地产深耕重庆二十一载,被业界誉为“城市商业地标专家”。始终坚持以“第一流的地段,打造第一流的产品,服务第一流的客户”开发理念,建筑了一座座汇聚全球经济巨擘目光的顶尖城市地标。民生大厦、邹容广场、纽约•纽约、未来国际、英利国际金融中心等超级地标写字楼荣耀问世,见证了英利地产助力城市繁华升级的宏伟进程。此次,英利地产携洋房领域的诚意之作,26万方新加坡风情洋房项目---英利狮城花园亮相北部新区,不仅代表了其最雄厚的开发实力与前沿设计,也是英利国际置业在获得光大控股17.6亿港币注资后又一大动作。
  地标专家诚意之作
  英利狮城花园礼赞北部新区
  据了解,英利狮城花园从规划设计起,就融合了英利地产数十载的地产开发经验与新加坡国际人居理念。以超高绿化率、清澈灵动的湖面景观,真实还原花园城市风情。以24小时安保、特色管家服务,效法国际一流的新加坡物管服务,以多种稀缺石材、时尚设计美学,勾勒出典雅的建筑外墙。如此精工品质,再加上是重庆首个新加坡风情洋房社区,使得其未售先火,更是被业内外誉为北部新区的加冕之作。
  “我一直很信赖英利的品牌,现在就在未来国际写字楼办公。对于英利即将要推出的狮城花园很早之前就有关注,不出意外的话,我应该会很快入手。一来是看好北部新区的发展潜力,二来就是项目独特的新加坡风情,也是吸引我一大原因。”某连锁餐饮企业的董事长李先生向记者这样说道。

Friday 29 August 2014

Why Rosesyrup Research Focus On LED Business Of Valuetronic?

Question: Why Rosesyrup Research Focus On LED Business Of Valuetronic?

A reader of my report  (click here for the report) on Valuetronic sent me the following question:









And so I start digging the answer from Valuetronic 2014 annual report to justify my analysis:

  1. Consumer Electronic segment made up 68% of the company revenue. Refer to the following business segments financial report:


2. Although there weren't further break down of revenue into products line, the company's operation review describe LED business is a big contributor of  revenue in Consumer Electronic Segment. Refer to the following extract from Valuetronic's 2014 Operation Review:





Conclusion: LED Business contribute to most of Valuetronic revenue which is why I chosen to focus on the LED industry in my analysis.

Hope this clarify the doubt, thanks for reading.

Thursday 28 August 2014

Rosesyrup View On When will Singapore property market bottom out?

Rosesyrup Research


Rosesyrup's View On When will Singapore property market bottom out?

For the last two months whenever I flip open the money of my newspapers, I can read many "experts" giving their forecasts and predictions on how low Singapore property price will go before rebouncing. But the question on local property market isn't about WHAT(price), it is more about WHEN.
We got to understand:
  1.  Local property prices are falling due to gov not removing the cooling measure.
  2. Those measures are not meant to lower property prices to a specific level (if that was the case, those analysts' attempt on predicting "how low price would get" would be appropriate)
  3. Rather Gov kept those cooling measures on because it is worried that the low interest rate level (which depends mainly on Fed and not under the control of MAS) will spur irration speculation and ultimate property bubble.
  4. Understanding Point 3, means that Gov will only remove cooling measures (and therefore property price will only rise) only when interest starts rising.
  5. Simply put, those experts' predictions on WHAT PRICE are basically irrelevant. 
  6. A better prediction would be on when will interest rate start rising.
  7. Lastest minute on Fed's meeting in Jackson Hole already revealed that the US only plan to raise rate earliest by end of 2015.
  8. So conclusion=====>>>>> Enter properties and construction related counters at (or 1-2months before) Dec 2015 to catch the bottom out in the property market.

Performance Review: IReit Global

Performance Review

Purchase Price: $0.885 on IPO Debut

Target price: $1.06

Sold Price: $0.895 Today

Profit / Loss (after deducting Comm): 0.58%  over the tenure of 2 weeks


Comment:

I have liquidate all my holding of IReit Global. The profit is negligible and the counter was sold while it was still far from fair value.

Rationale for selling prematurely is:

  • Price wasn't moving much from IPO price. As a result I believe speculators are looking to quickly liquidate their holding too. 
  • There is a need to take shelter from the coming ECB (Euro Central Bank)'s Quantitative Easing (QE) program which will depreciate the Euro, reduce the yield and therefore price of IReit.

Friday 22 August 2014

Coal gas boom in China holds climate change risks

Source: https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/coal-gas-boom-china-holds-071937077--finance.html

Coal gas boom in China holds climate change risks

Coal gas boom in China threatens to spew greenhouse gases as world tries to curb emissions

RELATED QUOTES

SymbolPriceChange
F17.40-0.01
HEXIGTEN, China (AP) -- Deep in the hilly grasslands of remote Inner Mongolia, twin smoke stacks rise more than 200 feet into the sky, their steam and sulfur billowing over herds of sheep and cattle. Both day and night, the rumble of this power plant echoes across the ancient steppe, and its acrid stench travels dozens of miles away.
This is the first of more than 60 coal-to-gas plants China wants to build, mostly in remote parts of the country where ethnic minorities have farmed and herded for centuries. Fired up in December, the multibillion-dollar plant bombards millions of tons of coal with water and heat to produce methane, which is piped to Beijing to generate electricity.
It's part of a controversial energy revolution China hopes will help it churn out desperately needed natural gas and electricity while cleaning up the toxic skies above the country's eastern cities. However, the plants will also release vast amounts of heat-trapping carbon dioxide, even as the world struggles to curb greenhouse gas emissions and stave off global warming.
If all of the plants start up, the carbon dioxide they'd release would equal three-quarters of all energy-related carbon emissions in the U.S., according to U.S. government data and energy experts from Duke and Stanford universities. That is far more than now produced in China by burning coal, the country's main source of power.
So far, China is running only two pilot plants to produce methane, which is also known as synthetic natural gas, in the provinces of Inner Mongolia and far western Xinjiang, with another 21 approved. Building all 60 plants would cost an estimated $65 billion.
"Once you have invested in it, China will have locked itself in a high water-consuming, high carbon-emitting path," said Chi-Jen Yang, the Duke energy researcher. "This short-term mistake will become a mistake that will be hard to turn around for decades."
Chinese leaders are under intense pressure to meet rising energy needs spurred by economic growth but are hampered by insufficient reserves of natural gas and oil. At the same time, China's massive cities are contending with air pollution so intense it can shut down schools and airports and, studies show, shorten life expectancy by as many as five years.
Central to the appeal of the coal-to-gas plan is that it moves polluting energy production far away from cities while also turning the country's vast coal reserves into more valuable natural gas.
Yet scientists at Tsinghua University and Ford Motor Co. estimate the process emits between 36 and 82 percent more greenhouse gases than burning coal to produce electricity. The resulting methane can also be used to power vehicles, heat homes and cook food.
Already, China emits more heat-trapping carbon into the atmosphere than any other nation and twice that of the U.S., the world's second biggest carbon emitter. Even without the new plants, China's carbon emissions are projected to double over the next 25 years, while U.S. emissions stay steady, U.S. Energy Information Administration data show.
"Everybody wants to find a path forward to solve the problems of (synthetic natural gas) and at the same time solve China's pollution problems," said Yanling Gong, editor-in-chief of the government-affiliated China National Chemical Information Centre.
While less directly polluting than burning coal, the Inner Mongolia plant run by state-owned company Datang has already transformed this corner of rural Hexigten county famous for its long-maned horses and sun-burnt vistas.
As a boy growing up there, farmer Adiya could ride his horse through waist-high grass for miles without meeting another person. Now, the 32-year-old says he stays indoors some mornings because of the industrial stench.
Since the plant started running in December, it has obscured the blue skies above Adiya's home with smoke while black pools of wastewater have turned up in the grasslands.
"I only wish they could build this factory in Beijing," said Adiya, who uses only one name, as is Mongolian custom.
First developed during World War II, coal gasification breaks down coal into a fuel-gas mix called syngas and then into carbon dioxide and methane. The carbon is often released into the air.
The only other gasification plant in the world outside China to commercially produce synthetic natural gas sits in the coal-rich plains of North Dakota.
However, that plant became a financial black hole as soon as it began commercial operations in 1984. Natural gas prices leveled off and oil prices fell around the time it launched, knocking askew the plant's economics.
Despite that history, China has seized on the technology as a convenient bridge between its coal surplus and natural gas needs. But warnings about coal gasification appear to be getting through to at least some in China's government.
In a rare show of transparency, the chemical industry group mounted a three-day conference in August to debate the technology's future, sparking the kind of robust public discussion almost never seen among Chinese policymakers.
From the bustling Inner Mongolian city of Chifeng, Datang senior engineer Ge Wei said the facility's toughest challenge was properly disposing of the rivers of waste water it produces.
"We just want to make this run more smoothly," Ge said. "We don't want to say who's right and who's wrong. There's a lot we can just adjust."
However, Zhou Xueshuang, the director of China's petrochemical industry regulator, said he wasn't sold yet on the coal-to-gas boom. He warned of unchecked pollution and the plants' voracious use of water in some of China's driest regions.
"From the environmental standpoint, it doesn't make sense," Zhou said at the conference. "To turn coal into gas and from gas to electricity, I think most of the projects aren't worth supporting."
During a visit to the Datang site, Associated Press reporters saw evidence of air and water pollution from the plant, two days before visitors from the conference arrived.
Although the facility's waste water evaporators, which produce much of its stench, didn't appear to be running, a sharp odor still filled the site. Adiya said the smell was usually much worse but had been diminishing in the days leading up to the official visit. By the time the tour buses showed up, the stench had disappeared. Reporters also saw a large pool of black waste water beside the plant's west wall, with no lining or other protection preventing it from contaminating groundwater.
While pollution problems are being scrutinized, few in China are talking about greenhouse gas emissions as part of the synthetic natural gas debate, said Gong from the chemical industry group.
"I think the carbon emissions issue isn't as serious as China's energy problems," she said.
Yet operating just 40 of the new facilities at 90 percent capacity would emit around 110 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide over 40 years, according to a study by Yang and Stanford University energy and environment professor Robert Jackson. The world emitted 36 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide last year from burning fossil fuels, according to the research group the Global Carbon Project.
Jackson said China could blunt some of the carbon impact by installing expensive technology at the plants that would capture carbon and bury it underground. He said none of the Chinese plants are set up to capture carbon. The North Dakota plant buries or reuses up to half of the carbon it emits.
Yang, however, said that even with the technology, the Chinese plants would capture only a third of the greenhouse gas emissions from synthetic natural gas because more carbon is released when the gas is later burned to produce electricity. What China really needs to focus on is spurring cleaner energies such as non-coal based natural gas, he said.
"If they have only built these two plants, the impact is not that big," Yang said. "If you build 30 or 40, the effect will be extremely serious. To stop that development, the time to do that is now."

Mirach Energy: Jack In The Box

Rosesyrup Research


Mirach Energy: Jack In The Box



Current Price: $0.197
Target price: $0.018
Call: Short
Potential Return: 10.73X

Before we proceed to the analysis, readers need to understand all the following is my opinion only and in no way represents fact of any kind. No allegation of any kind is made here.
As a fundamentalist, I can never stress enough how important an annual report is. In fact accounting figures in the report are the only way we know how well a company performed for the past 1 year or quarter. For this reason, regulators over the world have placed strong legal burden on directors and auditor to ensure the financial statements present a true and fair view of the company economic affair.
Although Mirach's report has the assurance of its directors and auditor, I choose not to place any faith in what I read from the report due to the following red flags:

  • 1.       Change of CFO
With effect from 1 July 2014, Dr Hu Xiao Ying will be replaced by Mr Cheah Soon Ann Jeremy as CFO.  The former was appointed as CFO in 2012 September and held office for about 1 year 10 months. Due to the strategic natural of the position, the average term of CFO is about 3-5 years.  It is very rare for CFO to step down in less than 2 years.
The company did not proceed to give any further reason as to why the CFO stepped down but claimed that Dr Hu will continue to serve as Supervisor of Prisma Kampung Minyak oil field under the company. This is mind blogging. Definitely the remuneration package of supervisor can't compare to that of a CFO, and Dr Hu his PHD and experience as CFO could have seek employment elsewhere. But this sound like a good way to dismiss Hu's service without the need to give any explanation.  


  • 2.       Change in Auditor
Right after the previous CFO stepped down, Mirach proceeded to change its auditor from  RT LLP to  Ernst & Young LLP. I did a quick check on RT LLP and it is still in business. So why is there a need to change auditor?
Annual report is like the report card of the management and auditor is like the examiner. It takes time for the new auditor to fully understand and appreciate the business before deciding to gives its management some leeway, whenever appropriate, in accounting. So what makes the management abandon the old teacher who tend to give lenient grade and choose a new teacher who is more stringent? Management is just acting in contrary to its incentive and it does sound dubious.


  • 3.       Accounting Quality : Revenue
If the abrupt change in CFO and auditor weren't enough to raise alarm, the annual report should do the job. The following is an extract of Mirach's Operation Review (Pg 08 of 2013 annual report):

" For the financial year ended 31 December 2013 (“FY2013”), Revenue of USD5.1 million was derived from the Group’s continuing operations compared to that of USD1.05 million

in the financial year ended 31 December 2012 (“FY2012”). The main revenue of USD4.0 million was derived from providing the investment advisory services to the Group’s partner in their oil field acquisition in Indonesia."

By claiming that the $5.1M is from the company continuing operation (note the word continuing), Mirach is trying to imply that it is recurring in natural. But can we really expect such revenue to recur in the future? If we read further, we find that $4M (of the $5.1M) is derived from providing acquisition advice to another company. Can we expect that same company to do acquisition every year and therefore engage Mirach's service annually?
The last time I check, such revenue is usually one off instead of "continuing" ! To think that management have the cheek to even "fool around" with how the top line of the income statement is perceived already signal some governance problem.


  • 4.       Goverance Issue: Interest free Loan
As of the end of 2013, the company is effectively providing an interest free loan to its associate CPHL cambodia in which it has  48% stake. Quantum of the loan amount to around 35% of the company total asset.


Since Mirach has minority stake in CPHL, why did the company give interest free loan to the associate? By doing so it is benefiting other shareholders of CPHL more than benefitting Mirach shareholders.  Can't the associate apply for bank loan?
Although the company believes that the loan is highly recoverable but  CPHL is a highly leveraged loss making company.



Valuation
In the face of such poor accounting quality and possible "jack in the box" (governance issue) down the road, I placed little faith in whatever I see in the accounting statement and therefore prefer to value the firm with NAV, with the following adjustment to the 2013 December  book value of course:

·         Assume default of associate (USD$18512000)
·         Removal of intangible asset which is mainly made up of Unproved Concessionary right in Cambodia. (USD$8696000)
·         Loss in H2 2014 (USD$2817000)
·         Exchange rate of USD$1 to SGD$1.249

Adjusted NAV per share = $0.018 (My target price)

Well, not all readers are convinced that the company has weak governance, in that case they might want to value the company with the usual P/B ratio.

Average P/B ratio of oil company now = 1.72

Price = 0.032 (aggressive target price)

From the following chart, the market seems to agree with me that NAV is a good way to value the company. As we can see, before the usual price movement which was queried by SGX, Mirach had been pretty stable at 0.05 cents (NAV claimed on the company website).  



I personally suspect that the usual price movement is a designed attempt by big buyers to lure small investors in. As we can see from the huge increase in volume (before price movement), a very bullish signal sufficient to lure retailers using technical analysis. After the manipulation, price has been falling as the big buyers take profit and market comes to its sense that Mirach isn't worth that much. Therefore my call is to short Mirach and take advantage of the market irrationality! Potential return = 10 times.


 Oh yeah one more thing I learnt from my experience in the energy sector. Energy companies are deemed to be very risky business and to limit that risk to shareholders, companies usually rely on huge amount of debt financing in order to take advantage of the limited liability natural of a company. But for Mirach case, the level of liability is really low in comparison to peers and there is nearly no bank loans taken up. Is it because the company can't obtain any loan from bank? Afterall all banks would request to examine the firm business and financial statements in detail before promising to make any loan.

Happy shorting this Jack in the box!




Thursday 14 August 2014

Valuing JAPFA

Rosesyrup Research


TARGET PRICE: $1

Upside: 25%

Valuing JAPFA

A number of blogs and articles have done a good job providing qualitative analysis on JAPFA. Rather than repeating their points all over again and risk being redundant here, I will just quickly summaries their points and provide the relevant link to their respective websites.
Instead I will add value by expressing my views on JAPFA and end off by providing my formal valuation.

Summary
As countries in ASEAN region become richer, there is a real growth potential for JAPFA business. The industry is also very fragmented in Indonesia and mostly run by families  with limited capital. Therefore, a publicly listed JAPFA with access to huge amount of funding has significant competitive advantage over private limited competitors. Thus being a market leader in a fast growing industry makes JAPFA business a very attractive investment opportunity. (You can read more about JAPFA's attractiveness from MR IPO BLOG).

However, JAPFA is highly leveraged with 60% of its asset financed with debt and some of its credit are charged as high as 16%. The fact that JAPFA is operating in Indonesia, a country faced with twin deficit problem raise extra concern. (Read more about credit risk from Motley Fool article).

My Opinion
Credit risk concern raised by Motley Fool might be overplayed a bit:
  • 1.    Average interest rate of JAPFA stands at around 6-7%. The 16% interest rate is most probably cost of small amount of revolving credit, which typically much more expensive than line credit but necessary for every business's day to day operation.
  • 2.    It is an agriculture industry's norm to have high leverage. For example, JAPFA debt to equity ratio stands at 1.4X while Chaoren Food (direct competitor) has a ratio of 1.7X.
  • 3.    While I agree that the volatile interest rate and currencies in Indonesia post significant near term risk to JAPFA, a1997 Asian currencies crisis type of scenario is highly unlikely to happen due to the improved cooperation among Central Banks and currency pegging system.

In conclusion I think JAPFA is an attractive growth investment with correspondingly high risk. In order to quantify that risk and attractiveness, we will need to do a valuation on JAPFA.


Valuation by other websites and their flaws

Before we move on to the calculation, it is worthy to note that JAPFA has negative cashflow and does not pay dividend. This means that absolute valuation models are inapplicable. Even if I could extrapolate and assume JAPFA could achieve positive cashflow by X year, the assumption is highly unreliable due to the highly uncertain political environment in Indonesia.

Motley Fool therefore attempted to value JAPFA using P/E model (a relative valuation method comparing against competitors based in China), which I do not think is appropriate in JAPFA case due to the following 2 reasons:
  1. 1.    Peers in China operate under a very very different business environment as compared to JAPFA. Some important differences are in the legal system and capital flow, which have great impact on valuation.
  2. 2.    What P/E model really compares is the level of market confident in a company's ability to translate each cent of earning into ultimate returns to shareholders (usually through dividend policy). But as mentioned, JAPFA does not have any dividend policy as of yet.

My valuation
My valuation model entails using justified P/B ratio and only comparing against Thailand Chaoren Food which operates in environment much similar to that of JAPFA. I have attached a screenshot of my modeling as follow:






Things to Notes
  • ·         I assume an ROE of 15.37% (average of past 3 years ROE) in FY 2014. Up to you to assess is this a realistic assumption.
  • ·         Target price is $1 with 25% upside from IPO price.
  • ·         Target price is just a maximum price an economic person is willing to pay for JAPFA's risk and reward, it does not mean that actual market price will move to 99.5cents due to reasons like market sentiments.
  • ·         JAPFA is highly recommended for institutional investors looking to invest in counters that form growth portion of their portfolio.
  • ·         JAPFA is NOT recommended for most individual investors, except high risk growth investors. Such individuals are also advised to limit their portfolio exposure to JAPFA.

Rosesyrup's Trading Strategy on first day of listing
Since JAPFA is too risky for the appetite of most value investors who supported the share price in the market, whether JAPFA float or sink on debut rest completely on whether institutional investors will come in and grab some shares in the open market.
Therefore my personal strategy is to wait for signal.
  • ·         If price sink, I will wait till it stabilize before buying in to gain higher return. Matter of time institutional investors will come in, as it is indeed a very attractive stock to have in a large and diversified portfolio.
  • ·         If price float with quick and large volume=> I would enter quickly and exit at target price + 10% ($1.10) (Institutional investors are armed with tools to do shrewd  valuation, better not to push my luck too far).




Goodluck to all.

Tuesday 12 August 2014

IREIT GLOBAL: My Entry Price

OKAY, I gotten all the lots I wanted @ 88.5c

Refer to my report for target price and analysis (CLICK HERE)


Good luck to all.

IREIT Global (Update)

IREIT Global (Update)

  • Previously I made a BUY/ SUBSCRIBE call on IREIT on my Initial assessment Report (Click here for full report).
  • Hope most readers here heeded the advice and subscribe for it. Because it got 7X subscription at the balloting (Click here to see more about balloting result from Mr IPO)!
  • Meanwhile I congrat those who are lucky enough to secure a few lots from the balloting.
  • Those who aren't so lucky, don't worry! Because I did not get any lot too and I prepare to purchase from open market tomorrow.
  • I will update my average entry and exit price here. So if you are interested, can check my blog for update.
  • Good Luck to all of us. 

Monday 11 August 2014

Some China developers likely to default


Some China developers likely to default
Declining credit and cooling property market may lead to an industry shakeout

[SHANGHAI] China's slumping property market is fuelling speculation the industry is set for a shakeout as small developers face difficulty raising funds to pay off debt.
Yield premiums on Chinese real estate bonds denominated in US dollars have jumped 27 basis points this month to 574 basis points over Treasuries, the sharpest increase among emerging Asian countries, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes.
That compares with a 24 basis-point advance for Indonesian builders. Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's said some smaller Chinese developers may default in the second half amid falling sales and shrinking access to credit.
China's real estate industry poses the biggest near-term risk to growth in the world's second-largest economy after new home prices dropped in the most number of cities in two years in June, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. While government steps to ease property curbs helped builder bonds rally in July, they're giving up those gains ahead of housing price data due next week.

Sunday 10 August 2014

IREIT GLOBAL TO ADD DIVERSITY, SAY ANALYST

Source: http://business.asiaone.com/news/ireit-global-ipo-add-diversity-say-analysts

Analysts say an upcoming new listing of a trust that holds German office assets will add diversity and depth to the real estate investment trust (Reit) sector here.
Property and market consultants told The Straits Times that IReit Global Group offers an attractive proposition for investors, with a projected distribution per unit yield of 8 per cent next year.
But the debut could be hit by poor market conditions due to geopolitical concerns over, for example, impending United States air strikes against militants in Iraq.
OCBC Investment Research analyst Eli Lee said the 8 per cent forward yield offers a 130-200 basis point spread above average forward yields for Singapore Reits (S-Reits).
For instance, the office S-Reit subsector's average forward yield is 6 per cent, while the overall sector has an average of 6.7 per cent.
"That said, unlike IReit, which holds properties in Germany, the typical office S-Reit has the bulk of its portfolio exposure here," said Mr Lee.
"The differences in key geographical drivers could lead to meaningful divergences ahead, in terms of rental outlook, occupancy trends and reversion profiles."
Voyage Research deputy research head Ng Kian Teck noted that S-Reits have performed well, with most reporting second-quarter earnings that are either in line with or better than expectations.
IReit will have to dangle higher yields if it wants local investors to put their money into assets they are not very familiar with in a place that is half a world away.
Mr Ng added that market conditions have not been favourable for initial public offerings (IPO).
The two most recent entrants, Accordia Golf Trust and Terratech, have both sunk into the red since making their debuts in the past two weeks, and have yet to hit their IPO prices.
Mr Ng said: "The poor performances are fresh in the minds of investors, and with IReit coming behind them, the timing is not good.
"There's a lot of uncertainty now, with global markets not doing well, but a good asset is a good asset, and investors will come in, especially since Reits are usually held for the longer term."
Overseas trusts such as IReit also face inherent challenges, including currency exchange losses from a strengthening Singapore dollar, and subject potential investors to higher risks, noted Mr Ng.
Mr Donald Han, managing director of property consultancy Chestertons, pointed out that some Singapore-listed overseas Reits have done well, particularly those from growing economies.
They include Ascendas India Trust, Global Logistics Properties and Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust, whose owners have been around for a long while.
Mr Han said Germany is considered a safe haven among European countries and is one of the key drivers of growth for the region.
"IReit's 8 per cent yield is fairly attractive compared with yields for Singapore's prime office sector, which are less than 4 per cent," he added.
"Yields for business parks and office space are also well below 6 per cent, even in major German cities such as Munich and Frankfurt." Analysts warned that IReit's assets are mostly in second-tier German cities and highly reliant on a single tenant.
Three of its properties are leased to GMG, a unit of Deutsche Telekom, and the four office properties that make up the initial portfolio are in the cities of Bonn, Darmstadt, Munster and Munich.
The company has priced the IPO at 88 cents a unit, and 167.7 million units will be available.
The public offer closes next Monday. Trading is expected to start next Wednesday.

Property Defaults Seen as Financing Stresses Mount: China Credit


Source:  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-11/property-defaults-seen-as-financing-stresses-mount-china-credit.html
Property Defaults Seen as Financing Stresses Mount: China Credit

China’s stocks rose, sending the benchmark index to its biggest gain in a week, amid speculation subdued inflation will give policy makers more scope to loosen monetary policies to support growth.
Industrial Bank Co. advanced 1.5 percent and Haitong Securities Co. jumped 1.7 percent to lead gains for financial companies. China Vanke Co. and Poly Real Estate Group Co., the nation’s biggest developers, climbed at least 1.2 percent after a Beijing-based newspaper reported Shenzhen is the latest city to loosen its property curbs.
The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) rose 0.8 percent to 2,211,29 as of 10:19 a.m., while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) jumped 1.6 percent. Chinese stocks have rallied from this year’s low, with the Shanghai index rebounding 11 percent, amid signs stimulus measures such as monetary easing and accelerated infrastructure spending are helping the government to achieve its economic goals for this year. Consumer prices rose 2.3 percent in July, below China’s target of 3.5 percent for 2014.
“Inflation is low and that should leave the government with more ammunition to support the economy,” said Wang Weijun, a strategist at Zheshang Securities Co. in Shanghai. “The policy front for property stocks is undoubtedly improving and there are some opportunities for the sector. Upcoming economic data will be good and at least they won’t miss market expectations.”
The CSI 300 Index added 1 percent. The Bloomberg China-US Equity Index, the measure of the most-traded U.S.-listed Chinese companies, surged 1.5 percent on Aug. 8.
Consumer prices rose at the same pace as in June and also the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Factory-gate prices fell 0.9 percent, matching projections and extending the longest stretch of declines since 1999.

Monetary Conditions

China loosened monetary conditions last quarter at the fastest pace in almost two years, a Bloomberg LP gauge showed, testing the waning effectiveness of credit in supporting economic growth.
Bloomberg’s new China Monetary Conditions Index -- a weighted average of loan growth, realinterest rates and China’s real effective exchange rate -- rose 6.71 points to 82.81 in the second quarter from the previous three months. That’s the biggest jump since the July-September period of 2012, with May and June’s numbers the first back-to-back readings above 80 since January 2012.
The bureau will release data on industrial production, investment and retail sales on Aug. 13. Factory output probably rose 9.2 percent in July from a year earlier, while retail sales growth accelerated to 12.5 percent from 12.4 percent a month earlier, according to median estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Property Easing

The Shanghai Composite is valued at 8.1 times 12-month projected earnings, compared with the five-year average multiple of 11.2, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Trading volumes in the index were 5.5 percent lower than the 30-day average for this time of day.
Shenzhen, a first-tier city, plans to make small adjustments to property policies and scrap limits onhome prices, the China Times reported, citing an unidentified person familiar with the matter.
Shenzhen has prepared policies to ease controls on the property market, including reducing the deed tax and lowering mortgage down payments for second home buyers, the newspaper reported. The city government held a closed-door meeting last week on the real-estate market, it said.
Jinan canceled home purchase limits last month after implementing them for more than 3 years. Hohhot in Inner Mongolia eased home-purchase limits in June, while the China Times reported in July that Wuhan city will relax rules on local residents third-home purchases.

Bourses Link

The southeastern province of Fujian asked banks to speed up approvals for mortgage lending and increase loans to developers, according to a statement on the city’s housing administration.
Pressure is increasing on Hong Kong’s exchange to provide clarity on trading rules before a link starts with Shanghai that will give foreigners unprecedented access to China’s $3.6 trillion stock market.
Investors won’t be able to sell Shanghai shares through an exchange link with Hong Kong unless they transfer the stock to a broker before trading starts that day, according to Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. Shares must be transferred prior to 7:30 a.m. if investors want to execute the trades, Hong Kong bourse Chairman Charles Li wrote in a blog posting published yesterday. This will allow the two exchanges to settle the trades in compliance with mainland Chinese rules, he wrote.