Closing Noble

In my previous post this morning, I bought Noble for $1.29 for speculative play. (refer to previous post here)

Target of $1.36 was not achieved. So I sold all my Noble holding @ $1.305 at end of the day.


Return=> Meager 0.7% after commission

Speculating On Noble

Hi, Noble is drastically oversold today.

Given Noble Beta of 1.6===>>>> It should have fell around 2% today instead of the 7%.

Also Olam, a similar (not same business) only fell by 1.2%. Hardly in tandem with Noble's movement today.

I am betting it will recover by mid day.

Good Luck to me

Target 1.36
Entry 1.29

Note that this trade is a speculation for quick gain. I have yet to do detail analysis on Noble. Follow at your own risk.

Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-jan-aug-housing-sales-down-almost-11-2014-09-14

China Jan.-Aug. housing sales down almost 11%

BEIJING--Housing sales in China in the first eight months of the year fell 10.9% to 3.43 trillion yuan ($559 billion), according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics issued Saturday.

Sales in the first seven months of the year were down 10.5% from a year earlier at 2.98 trillion yuan.

Property developers across the country have been struggling with weak sales, bulging inventories and tight credit conditions since the start of the year, and some authorities, mostly at the local level, have been loosening policies to support the sluggish market. Analysts and investors are closely watching for signs recovery in the housing market, which is an important driver of China's economic growth.

More than 30 local governments have loosened property restrictions such as limits on second home purchases, but buyers are staying on the sidelines because they expect prices to fall further on rising inventories.

Many Chinese property developers said in their first-half earnings reports that they expect to sell the bulk of their inventories in September and October, which are usually the peak months for property sales.

New construction starts in the January-August period measured by area fell 10.5% to 1.14 billion square meters. This compared with a decline of 12.8% to 982.3 million square meters in the first seven months.

Property investment in the first eight months of this year rose 13.2% to 5.90 trillion yuan, slowing down from the 13.7% growth in the first seven months. The investment figures are a lagging indicator, and reflect ongoing activity in projects that started last year. New construction starts grew 13.5% in 2013.

The statistics bureau doesn't give data for individual months.

Esther Fung, Liyan Qi

Source: https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/european-states-struggle-draghis-challenge-081909375--finance.html

European states struggle with Draghi's challenge

Eurozone governments challenged to increase spending, shake up over-regulated economies

MILAN (AP) -- Eurozone finance ministers on Friday said they were willing to help the European Central Bank in its plan to save the economy. How much they can do in practice, however, remains unclear.

The ministers met for the first time since ECB President Mario Draghi sketched out this month what has been dubbed "Draghinomics:" a three-pillared strategy including more stimulus from the central bank, added government spending and pro-business reforms to cut bureaucracy and make economies more productive.

The ECB covered the first pillar, offering a range of new stimulus measures at its last meeting. Governments from the 18 euro countries hold sway over the other two, but have been either reluctant or unable to act.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutchman who heads the eurozone finance ministers' meetings, said Friday that governments are now ready to shift their focus from stabilizing financial markets to promoting growth.

Eurozone states, he said, should complement the ECB's efforts to boost the economy with "a credible mix of fiscal policies, structural reforms and investment."

"We all agree the euro area needs to increase this growth potential and create more jobs," Dijsselbloem said.

Europe's economy showed no growth in the second quarter. That followed four quarters of unsatisfying recovery from a crisis over high government debt. Unemployment remains at a painful 11.5 percent.

Draghi, sitting nearby, expressed satisfaction that there was agreement in the meeting that "to see investment return we need structural reform."

To get the economy going, governments will have to back up their words with actions. Some of the key reasons they have not so far:

—With tight EU rules on public deficits, there's little room for more government spending on projects that would help economic growth.

—The push for pro-business reforms in two of the more troubled countries, France and Italy, faces political headwinds.

—Germany, the dominant eurozone country, has backed calls for more investment spending, but excluded borrowing money to do it.

—There is talk of an EU-level investment fund to pay for infrastructure such as roads and bridges, but the details are far from filled in.

In Milan, the ministers' focus on reforms included the need to reduce the tax burden on labor, noting that the eurozone's overall tax burden is above the average for developed countries in large part due to the tax wedge on labor.

They did not, however, say they would ease European Union limits on borrowing. For some countries, borrowing more money to invest can help economic growth if the money is spent fruitfully.

EU rules limit national deficits to below 3 percent of GDP to ensure stability of the shared currency. Yet a strong focus on reducing deficits can choke off growth that is needed both to shrink debt and reduce unemployment.

Italy and others want to change how the EU calculates member states' deficits so that governments are allowed to keep some spending as long it helps economic growth, the EU official added. That idea has been opposed, however, by Jyrki Katainen, the new vice president of the European Union's executive commission, and by German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Dijsselbloem ruled out any changes to the rules. He said they did not discuss a French request for more time to bring its deficit back below the 3 percent ceiling.

Italian Economics Minister Pier Carlo Padoan suggested a close focus on deficit limits was not appropriate at a time of economic weakness. He said that for Italy, bringing its deficit to 2.6 percent of GDP this year, as it currently aims to do, "was a goal compatible with a different macroeconomic picture."

As the meeting got under way, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi sent a defiant tweet: "We respect the 3 percent. We are among the few who do. We therefore don't expect lessons from Europe but the 300 billion euros of investments."

Renzi referred to a European Commission proposal to get 300 billion euros ($388 billion) in public and private investment to revive the economy.

Dijsselbloem said that issue would be taken up by the wider meeting of European Union finance ministers on Saturday.

___

McHugh reported from Frankfurt, Germany. Juergen Baetz in Brussels contributed to this report.

Magnus Energy Chief Sued by Broker Over Stock Rout

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-12/magnus-energy-chief-sued-by-broker-over-stock-rout.html

Magnus Energy Chief Sued by Broker Over Stock Rout

A Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) brokerage sued the managing director of Magnus Energy Group Ltd. (MAGE) in Singapore to recover an unpaid trading debt.

Lim Kuan Yew owed DMG & Partners Securities Pte S$1.77 million ($1.4 million) for Blumont Group Ltd. and Asiasons Capital Ltd. shares bought in October, according to a lawsuit with the Singapore High Court. Singapore trading rules allow investors three days to pay for their stock purchases.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore and the police are investigating suspected stock-trading irregularities related to drops in Blumont, Asiasons and LionGold Corp. in early October 2013 that slashed $6.9 billion off the combined value of the shares. Magnus has been asked to assist in the probe, including providing electronic data and trading records of two executives.

Michelle Chia, a DMG spokeswoman, declined to comment. DMG is a venture betweenMalaysia’s RHB Capital Bhd (RHBC) and Deutsche Bank. Lim, who also traded in LionGold shares, according to court papers, didn’t answer four phone calls to his office.

Magnus Energy has said its business won’t be affected by the probe. Magnus Energy fell 7.7 percent to 1.2 Singapore cents as of 12:01 p.m. in trading in the city, extending this year’s slump to 64 percent.

DMG’s lawyers have tried unsuccessfully on three occasions to serve the lawsuit on Lim in Singapore, according to court papers filed last month. The brokerage said in court papers it’s attempting to serve Lim in Malaysia, where he’s believed to be residing.

Asiasons, Blumont and LionGold have said they don’t know what caused the sudden declines, which spurred brokers to clamp down on margin lending and dented trading sentiment.

Stock trading volume in the city tumbled about 32 percent from a year earlier to a daily average of S$1.05 billion this year through yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The case is DMG and Partners Securities v Lim Kuan Yew, S694/2014. Singapore High Court.

To contact the reporters on this story: Andrea Tan in Singapore at atan17@bloomberg.net; Jonathan Burgos in Singapore at jburgos4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Douglas Wong at dwong19@bloomberg.netDave McCombs, Terje Langeland

Blumont takes 43% stake in uranium miner

Source: http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium/companies/others/blumont-takes-43-stake-uranium-miner-20140912

Blumont takes 43% stake in uranium miner

BLUMONT Group now holds a 43.08 per cent stake in privately held uranium miner Azarga Resources after converting US$19.1 million worth of convertible notes.

The notes were converted into Azarga stock at 50 US cents per share. Azarga is not listed, so there is no open-market price available for the shares.

The notes were issued as part of a convertible facility provided by Blumont's wholly-owned subsidiary Powerlite Ventures to Azarga, under which Azarga could draw up to US$21 million in cash.

As part of the facility, Azarga will issue convertible notes to Powerlite upon drawing down the facility, with the notes to be eventually converted to Azarga shares at 50 US cents per share.

Follow Up On JAPFA

Follow Up On JAPFA

This post is drafted for a friend who followed me on JAPFA

My Message to him is as follow:

1. I have not sold any of my 25 lots of Japfa. And I will formal post a performance review if I ever sell it.
   
   
2. Japfa reached a height of 94cents before plunging back to current price, and I see 2 main reasons for this:
   
   
• Japfa posted 34% decline in profit in 1H. This is pretty much expected for a newly listed firm. Most business prior to listing would manage their earning to secure the best possible valuation after which they will take a big bath to write down all previous losses. But longer term wise, this is still a profitable business due to a favorable industry setup. More analysis on the industry is available from this article .
  
  
• Fear of Fed might be hiking interest rate, which might cause a currency crisis in developing countries. A few nations and Indonesia who have weak reserve become the likely target. I have already mentioned this risk in my earlier assessment of Japfa (refer to it here). Despite the fact that Indonesia was attacked several times in the recent years, I do not foresee a full scale currency flight happening in Indonesia as Fed is pretty responsible this time round. At least it has the courtesy to announce the date at which QE program would be tapered. According to Economic Theories, such announcement allows investors in developing nations to retreat orderly instead running for exit.
  
  
3. I am usually a longer term investor with time frame ranging from 3 months to 1 year. Thus shorter term fluctuation usually isn't much of a problem to me.
   
   
4. I am a price taker:My portfolio size is small and diversified, that means I can't move the market. My strategy only entails the following:
• Trying to foresee possible prospects which the market fails to foresee. 
• Picking the right counters
• Wait for the market to see what I saw. (usually only when news start to report)
• Let the market push the price to where I am aiming
• I take the profit.
  
  
5. Short term market fluctuation tend to base upon sentiment which I have no control on. Take First Sponsor as an example, I have shorted at $1.44 and expected it to fall till $0.94 within 2 weeks (You can refer to my call on First Sponsor here). As soon as the counter got listed, price indeed moved down quickly and decisively. The management soon came in to shore up confidence by buying shares from the market. While First Sponsor's bad fundamental does not improve just because of their actions, they do improved the market sentiment and prevented the share price from falling further. As a result price now stuck at $1.27 and the only thing I could do is to wait for market to return to its rationality.

Fundamental always prevail in long term.

Cheers

Guest post: China’s problem is not property oversupply, but too few modern homes

 Source: http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2014/09/10/guest-post-chinas-problem-is-not-property-oversupply-but-too-few-modern-homes/

Guest post: China’s problem is not property oversupply, but too few modern homes

Sep 10, 2014 6:36pmby guest writer

1inShare01

By Rafael Halpin, China Confidential

For a sector regularly called “the most important in the universe”, there is a remarkable lack of consensus over the Chinese housing market. Much of the debate boils down to whether China is currently under- or over-supplied with homes.

The absence of any comprehensive data on just how many houses there are in China, has led to wildly divergent views. But, as we will seek to demonstrate in this article, despite the lack of any solid data on the total number of homes in China, it is still possible to present a strong statistical case that the market is currently under-supplied with modern housing.

While data on the housing market is patchy in many areas, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) does publish information on the number of ‘commodity’ houses that the country has. Commodity homes are independent, modern units, built after reforms to establish a private housing market were introduced in the late-1990s. According to the NBS, by the end of 2012 (the most recent year for which data has been published), China had built 60m of these units.

The remainder of China’s housing stock can be split into two areas. Firstly, there are ‘legacy’ homes, which were built by the state before the introduction of a private housing market. They are generally of poor construction; China’s own housing ministry admitted that “houses built between 1979 and 1999 cannot meet the demands of modern living”. The second area is off-market houses; units built after the private housing market was established, but not sold on the market. These are mainly small-scale affordable houses (with an average unit size of around 60 square metres) or temporary worker dormitories.

According to the NBS, China’s permanent urban population (residents with an urbanhukou) was 480m by the end of 2012. The NBS also publishes data on the average urban household size, which in 2012 was 2.86 persons per household. This implies that by the end of that year, there were 168m permanent urban households. This figure doesn’t include migrant workers, a still marginal source of housing demand in China; only 1 per cent owned their own home in 2012, according to the NBS.

Quality is key in the housing supplyA straight forward comparison of this data with the number of commodity houses available suggests that, by the end of 2012, there were only enough commodity houses for 36 per cent of the permanent urban population.*By implication, the remaining 64 per cent lived in sub-standard off-market or legacy housing.

By focusing on the quality of China’s housing stock – and sidestepping the contentious question of its size – there is, therefore, a strong case that the market is currently under-supplied, with a chronic shortage of modern homes. If, as some are predicting, construction activity in China was to collapse, the remarkable improvement in the standard of living of China’s urbanites over the past 30 years would be hobbled, with the majority of the urban population remaining in substandard accommodation.

How does this square with the current slowdown in the housing market? That a large part of demand for housing in China is from people looking to move to bigger and better accommodation, in fact, goes some way to explaining this downturn. Upgrading demand is highly opportunistic in nature. If, as is the case at the moment, price expectations are negative or mortgages are expensive, much of this potential demand will withdraw from the market. In the absence of these buyers, less opportunistic demand from newly-created households is not on a large enough scale to prop up the market. Since 2008, the number of new commodity houses has, on average, exceeded the net increase in permanent urban households by 2m units per year.

In theory, this upgrading demand will, at some stage, return to the market. In particular, lower home prices should put bigger and better accommodation within the reach of more people, and resolve the problem of affordability which is currently holding back some of these potential buyers. This suggests that fears of an imminent collapse in China’s housing market may be overblown.

Property vulnerabilities mount as the market coolsThe problem, however, is that as the Chinese housing market cools, its vulnerabilities intensify. Chief among these is the vast number of empty houses, particularly in smaller cities. Speculation in the housing market is rife: we estimate that by 2013, 20 per cent of the urban housing stock was vacant, with more than 90 per cent of these empty units purchased by individuals for investment purposes. As we have demonstrated, there is sufficient demand to absorb these houses– even if these units were fully occupied, there would still only be enough modern homes for 36 per cent of the urban population – but a sudden influx, rather than steady drip of these properties onto the market would be disastrous.

Such is the danger of a prolonged downturn in China’s housing market; holders of empty units panicking and trying to sell their properties en-masse, leading to a price rout and further discouraging potential buyers. With the real estate sector estimated to account for over 40 per cent of shadow bank lending, a prolonged slowdown also threatens to destroy a fragile web of financing, with repercussions for the entire economy.

In China’s housing market, strong underlying fundamentals, therefore, coexist with equally substantial risks. The government may well be able to stimulate upgrading demand to mitigate these risks, but home buying sentiment is notoriously difficult to dictate, and a market panic can quickly become self-perpetuating. The issue of whether China’s housing market is currently under- or over-supplied is perhaps much clearer than many think, but the future of the sector is still wide open to debate.

*In reality, part of the increase in the permanent urban population over the past decade has been due to the expansion of towns and cities into rural areas. Arguably, this has not generated demand for urban houses given that these rural residents, who have been reclassified as urban, already have homes. Up to 30 per cent of the increase in the number of permanent urban households is due to this reclassification, according to academic studies. Even if this part of the urban population is excluded from our calculations, there are still only enough commodity houses for 39 per cent of the remaining households.

Rafael Halpin is Head of Quantitative Research at FT Confidential, a research service at the Financial Times

Back to beyondbrics

Performance Review: POSH (PACC)

Performance Review On POSH (PACC)

Shorted Price: $1.13 on 22nd July 2014 (refer to my sell call here)

Target price: $0.86

Buy-Back Price: $0.890 Today

Profit / Loss (after deducting Comm and Script borrowing cost): 25.47%  over the tenure of 9 weeks


Comment:

I have covered all my short position on POSH (PACC). 

My buy-back price of $0.89 is near my target price of $0.86. Although I could have waited it to reach my Target price before closing, 3 cents is negligible and the additional higher script borrowing cost might not be worthwhile. Meanwhile the marine industry has started to show sign of recovery, it is safer to cover any short position now to avoid any head wind.

Overall profit of 25.47% is good considering it was made over a mere tenure of 9 weeks.

Cheers.

Busy Till December

Hi Friends,

I am currently busy with a 3 months project which will impact my year end bonus.

I will still try to reply any email or request ASAP but my apology for not being able to do it immediately.

Meanwhile I look forward for more sharing from readers.

Follow Up On IREIT Global

Follow Up On IREIT Global

Hi Friends,


In my previous post, I sold my IREIT Global at 89.5cents (Refer to performance review here). Although I made a small gain of 0.58%, the price at which I sold was still a far cry from my original target price of $1.06 (Refer to initial analysis here). As I had said in my performance review, the reason for selling prematurely was to take shelter from Quantitative Easing (QE) from European Central Bank (ECB).

Today is the 8th day since I sold my IREIT Global, as expected ECB announced its decision to cut benchmark rate from the current 0.15% to 0.05% (Refer to the news here).  As a result of the QE, Euro dollar depreciated deeply aganist SGD (refer to the following chart).

The consequence of depreciating Euro is a fall in yield and net worth of IREIT Global. If the market is efficient, we should see this being reflected in the price of IREIT Global. I am glad that I made the right decision to sold my shares earlier.

While most the recommendations made by this blog involve betting against the market (with the believe that market is inefficient), it is never the aim of Rosesyrup Research to bet against Macro-Economic forces.


Cheers to those who follow this blog.

Source: http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20140904000090&cid=1202

Exclusive high-end realty market bucks China's housing problems

• Staff Reporter
 
• 2014-09-04
 
• 10:45 (GMT+8)

A model of apartments in Hangzhou, Sept. 2. (File photo/Xinhua)

Despite the government lowering restrictions to unprecedented levels, the high-end realty market has continued to boom while the low-end market flounders, according to the Chinese-language Global Entrepreneur magazine.

In the first seven months this year, 3,885 new houses priced at 5 million yuan (US$810,000) or above were sold in Beijing at an average price of 41,242 yuan/square meter (US$6,720), up 7.4% year-on-year. Furthermore, 232 houses priced 20 million yuan (US$3.3 million) or higher were bought, up 13.7% year-on-year. The average transaction price for new houses in the city, on the other hand, dropped 8.2% to 13,623 yuan/square meter (US$2,220).

China's housing market has been weighed down by an overwhelming number of residences against a tight credit policy. Fortunately, this has not deterred the purchasing power of those interested in the luxury house market. Buyers are able to fork over as much as 60% of their own funds in a purchase, compared with 35% for buyers at the medium- and low-end sectors.

Zheng Haiyian, analyst at Landz Estate, a luxury-housing broker, noted that with many municipal governments having eased the restriction on housing purchases, the overall housing market has picked up. Luxury housing, with limited supply, has retained a stable demand, according to the magazine.

Zhu Jia, chairman of Sun Real Estate in Beijing, said the most popular luxury houses are those featuring a high price/performance ratio and unique resources, on top of low carbon emissions, low environmental impact and a layout conducive to social gatherings. Price is a less sensitive issue for buyers in this segment, according to the report.

In general, the luxury housing market is stable and thwarts the price fluctuations normally damaging to the rest of the country's real estate.

Another Chinese Article (On Ying Li International Real Estate)

Found this article written in Mandarin  (sorry can't find any English version of the article)

Source: http://cq.focus.cn/news/2014-09-02/5477870.html

首席新加坡风情社区 英利狮城花园将圆梦山城

每每说到花园城市，人们首先想到的一定是新加坡。新加坡又叫做狮城，因其干净、自由、阳光的生活氛围而闻名于世。而能生活在新加坡一样的美丽花园国度，则是众多现代城市精英人群孜孜以求的优居梦想。近日，有着城市地标专家美称的英利国际置业荣耀降临北部新区机场路，以26万方低密度花园品质社区——英利狮城花园，圆全城名流一个生态宜居梦。
　　雄踞“奥宜麦”千亿商圈核心
　　圆精英一个繁华梦
　　“随着各大国际性大卖场的投入使用，麦德龙—宜家-奥特莱斯国际商圈完美成型，其核心区域以英利狮城花园为代表的稀缺物业价值将得到进一步提升。”一业界人士认为，今年3月27日宜家家居已经开业。“奥宜麦”千亿商圈已经繁华呈现，将为重庆人提供高品质的国际化生活，随着商圈进一步发展和扩容提质，该区域也将成为重庆主城最时尚、最潮流的国际生活圈。

　　西部奥特莱斯实景图

该人士介绍，英利狮城花园位于“奥宜麦”商圈核心，区位位置极其优越。该区域素有重庆“首席富人区”的美称，聚集了上百万的高端富裕人群。土地的稀缺性与旺盛高端住宅消费需求不成正比，占据黄金地段的风情洋房更是成这一区域的“香饽饽”。此次英利狮城花园的面世，将为高富菁英打造一个坐享千亿商圈的繁华宜居梦。

　　英利狮城花园中庭湖心效果图

低密度新加坡风情社区绽放
　　圆山城一个花园梦
　　据了解，不负花园城市美名的英利狮城花园可谓未售先火，吸引广大高富阶层的关注。因为有着纯正新加坡血统，项目自设计初始就以新加坡为蓝本打造。园林景观上，以鱼尾狮风情园、裕廊湖、丘吉尔庄园、桑菲尔庄园、海德花园五大景区演绎璀璨花园城市风情。以超高绿化率、海量车位匹配，打造低密度宜居原味新加坡风情社区。物业上，以国际一流的新加坡物管为典范，让业主尊享极致的物业服务。
　　“之前在新加坡有留过几年学，回来后就一直念念不忘。主要是那边干净的空气、花园般的城市街道深深的吸引了我。这次真没想到重庆也有这么高品质的新加坡风情洋房社区，楼盘只要一上市，我应该就会去认购。”有着新加坡留学背景的赵小姐向记者说道。
　　据悉，英利狮城花园套内88-166㎡新加坡风情洋房近期将荣耀面世，届时，售楼部与样板示范区也将同步对外开放。

Ying Li looks to widen property portfolio to Beijing, Shanghai

Source: http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/breaking-news/singapore/ying-li-looks-widen-property-portfolio-beijing-shanghai-20140902


Ying Li looks to widen property portfolio to Beijing, Shanghai

INGAPORE-LISTED Chongqing commercial developer Ying Li International Real Estate could begin diversifying its property portfolio to Shanghai and Beijing by the end of this year.

Said James Pan, Everbright head of real estate investment and fund raising: "Chongqing is a very important market especially for Ying Li, where it has built up a strong reputation and a brand name.

"On the other hand, the market is providing us with a window, because it has slowed down and developers are cautious on land acquisitions.

"With Everbright's network, capital and strong execution, and with significantly reduced gearing and fresh capital for Ying Li, we will have a chance to enter Tier 1 cities."

Alternative View On Japfa

Hi All,

A fellow blogger sent me the following link to his alternative view on JAPFA.


http://chemiccapital.blogspot.sg/



I thank the contributor for his effort.


And I look forward for more sharing from everyone.


For JAPFA !