Rosesyrup Research
Rosesyrup's View On When will Singapore property market bottom out?
For the last two months whenever I flip open the money of my newspapers, I can read many "experts" giving their forecasts and predictions on how low Singapore property price will go before rebouncing. But the question on local property market isn't about WHAT(price), it is more about WHEN.
We got to understand:
- Local property prices are falling due to gov not removing the cooling measure.
- Those measures are not meant to lower property prices to a specific level (if that was the case, those analysts' attempt on predicting "how low price would get" would be appropriate)
- Rather Gov kept those cooling measures on because it is worried that the low interest rate level (which depends mainly on Fed and not under the control of MAS) will spur irration speculation and ultimate property bubble.
- Understanding Point 3, means that Gov will only remove cooling measures (and therefore property price will only rise) only when interest starts rising.
- Simply put, those experts' predictions on WHAT PRICE are basically irrelevant.
- A better prediction would be on when will interest rate start rising.
- Lastest minute on Fed's meeting in Jackson Hole already revealed that the US only plan to raise rate earliest by end of 2015.
- So conclusion=====>>>>> Enter properties and construction related counters at (or 1-2months before) Dec 2015 to catch the bottom out in the property market.
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