Performance Review: Valuetronic

Performance Review On Valuetronic

Shorted Price: $0.53 on 22nd July 2014 (refer to my sell call here)

Target price: $0.34

Buy-Back Price: $0.32 Today

Profit / Loss (after deducting Comm and Script borrowing cost): 63.5%  over the tenure of 3 months


Comment:

I have covered all my short position on Valuetronic. It is a bonus that I am able to buy back 2 cents below my target price.

I am very satisfy with the high profit of 63.5%, especially considering it was made over a short tenure of 3 months only.

One friend asked me whether I think the current price is a good buy, my answer is no. Even though current price is below fair value, the safety margin is still too small to be of any comfort. Furthermore following the recent deep correction in stock market, there are lots of other opportunities offer much more attractive return per unit of risk than Valuetronic. I would give Valuetronic a miss at the current price.

Cheers.

Performance Review: POSH (PACC)

Performance Review On POSH (PACC)

Shorted Price: $1.13 on 22nd July 2014 (refer to my sell call here)

Target price: $0.86

Buy-Back Price: $0.890 Today

Profit / Loss (after deducting Comm and Script borrowing cost): 25.47%  over the tenure of 9 weeks


Comment:

I have covered all my short position on POSH (PACC). 

My buy-back price of $0.89 is near my target price of $0.86. Although I could have waited it to reach my Target price before closing, 3 cents is negligible and the additional higher script borrowing cost might not be worthwhile. Meanwhile the marine industry has started to show sign of recovery, it is safer to cover any short position now to avoid any head wind.

Overall profit of 25.47% is good considering it was made over a mere tenure of 9 weeks.

Cheers.

Follow Up On IREIT Global

Follow Up On IREIT Global

Hi Friends,


In my previous post, I sold my IREIT Global at 89.5cents (Refer to performance review here). Although I made a small gain of 0.58%, the price at which I sold was still a far cry from my original target price of $1.06 (Refer to initial analysis here). As I had said in my performance review, the reason for selling prematurely was to take shelter from Quantitative Easing (QE) from European Central Bank (ECB).

Today is the 8th day since I sold my IREIT Global, as expected ECB announced its decision to cut benchmark rate from the current 0.15% to 0.05% (Refer to the news here).  As a result of the QE, Euro dollar depreciated deeply aganist SGD (refer to the following chart).

The consequence of depreciating Euro is a fall in yield and net worth of IREIT Global. If the market is efficient, we should see this being reflected in the price of IREIT Global. I am glad that I made the right decision to sold my shares earlier.

While most the recommendations made by this blog involve betting against the market (with the believe that market is inefficient), it is never the aim of Rosesyrup Research to bet against Macro-Economic forces.


Cheers to those who follow this blog.

Performance Review: IReit Global

Performance Review

Purchase Price: $0.885 on IPO Debut

Target price: $1.06

Sold Price: $0.895 Today

Profit / Loss (after deducting Comm): 0.58%  over the tenure of 2 weeks


Comment:

I have liquidate all my holding of IReit Global. The profit is negligible and the counter was sold while it was still far from fair value.

Rationale for selling prematurely is:

• Price wasn't moving much from IPO price. As a result I believe speculators are looking to quickly liquidate their holding too. 
• There is a need to take shelter from the coming ECB (Euro Central Bank)'s Quantitative Easing (QE) program which will depreciate the Euro, reduce the yield and therefore price of IReit.