Closing Noble

In my previous post this morning, I bought Noble for $1.29 for speculative play. (refer to previous post here)

Target of $1.36 was not achieved. So I sold all my Noble holding @ $1.305 at end of the day.


Return=> Meager 0.7% after commission

Speculating On Noble

Hi, Noble is drastically oversold today.

Given Noble Beta of 1.6===>>>> It should have fell around 2% today instead of the 7%.

Also Olam, a similar (not same business) only fell by 1.2%. Hardly in tandem with Noble's movement today.

I am betting it will recover by mid day.

Good Luck to me

Target 1.36
Entry 1.29

Note that this trade is a speculation for quick gain. I have yet to do detail analysis on Noble. Follow at your own risk.

Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-jan-aug-housing-sales-down-almost-11-2014-09-14

China Jan.-Aug. housing sales down almost 11%

BEIJING--Housing sales in China in the first eight months of the year fell 10.9% to 3.43 trillion yuan ($559 billion), according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics issued Saturday.

Sales in the first seven months of the year were down 10.5% from a year earlier at 2.98 trillion yuan.

Property developers across the country have been struggling with weak sales, bulging inventories and tight credit conditions since the start of the year, and some authorities, mostly at the local level, have been loosening policies to support the sluggish market. Analysts and investors are closely watching for signs recovery in the housing market, which is an important driver of China's economic growth.

More than 30 local governments have loosened property restrictions such as limits on second home purchases, but buyers are staying on the sidelines because they expect prices to fall further on rising inventories.

Many Chinese property developers said in their first-half earnings reports that they expect to sell the bulk of their inventories in September and October, which are usually the peak months for property sales.

New construction starts in the January-August period measured by area fell 10.5% to 1.14 billion square meters. This compared with a decline of 12.8% to 982.3 million square meters in the first seven months.

Property investment in the first eight months of this year rose 13.2% to 5.90 trillion yuan, slowing down from the 13.7% growth in the first seven months. The investment figures are a lagging indicator, and reflect ongoing activity in projects that started last year. New construction starts grew 13.5% in 2013.

The statistics bureau doesn't give data for individual months.

Esther Fung, Liyan Qi

Source: https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/european-states-struggle-draghis-challenge-081909375--finance.html

European states struggle with Draghi's challenge

Eurozone governments challenged to increase spending, shake up over-regulated economies

MILAN (AP) -- Eurozone finance ministers on Friday said they were willing to help the European Central Bank in its plan to save the economy. How much they can do in practice, however, remains unclear.

The ministers met for the first time since ECB President Mario Draghi sketched out this month what has been dubbed "Draghinomics:" a three-pillared strategy including more stimulus from the central bank, added government spending and pro-business reforms to cut bureaucracy and make economies more productive.

The ECB covered the first pillar, offering a range of new stimulus measures at its last meeting. Governments from the 18 euro countries hold sway over the other two, but have been either reluctant or unable to act.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutchman who heads the eurozone finance ministers' meetings, said Friday that governments are now ready to shift their focus from stabilizing financial markets to promoting growth.

Eurozone states, he said, should complement the ECB's efforts to boost the economy with "a credible mix of fiscal policies, structural reforms and investment."

"We all agree the euro area needs to increase this growth potential and create more jobs," Dijsselbloem said.

Europe's economy showed no growth in the second quarter. That followed four quarters of unsatisfying recovery from a crisis over high government debt. Unemployment remains at a painful 11.5 percent.

Draghi, sitting nearby, expressed satisfaction that there was agreement in the meeting that "to see investment return we need structural reform."

To get the economy going, governments will have to back up their words with actions. Some of the key reasons they have not so far:

—With tight EU rules on public deficits, there's little room for more government spending on projects that would help economic growth.

—The push for pro-business reforms in two of the more troubled countries, France and Italy, faces political headwinds.

—Germany, the dominant eurozone country, has backed calls for more investment spending, but excluded borrowing money to do it.

—There is talk of an EU-level investment fund to pay for infrastructure such as roads and bridges, but the details are far from filled in.

In Milan, the ministers' focus on reforms included the need to reduce the tax burden on labor, noting that the eurozone's overall tax burden is above the average for developed countries in large part due to the tax wedge on labor.

They did not, however, say they would ease European Union limits on borrowing. For some countries, borrowing more money to invest can help economic growth if the money is spent fruitfully.

EU rules limit national deficits to below 3 percent of GDP to ensure stability of the shared currency. Yet a strong focus on reducing deficits can choke off growth that is needed both to shrink debt and reduce unemployment.

Italy and others want to change how the EU calculates member states' deficits so that governments are allowed to keep some spending as long it helps economic growth, the EU official added. That idea has been opposed, however, by Jyrki Katainen, the new vice president of the European Union's executive commission, and by German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Dijsselbloem ruled out any changes to the rules. He said they did not discuss a French request for more time to bring its deficit back below the 3 percent ceiling.

Italian Economics Minister Pier Carlo Padoan suggested a close focus on deficit limits was not appropriate at a time of economic weakness. He said that for Italy, bringing its deficit to 2.6 percent of GDP this year, as it currently aims to do, "was a goal compatible with a different macroeconomic picture."

As the meeting got under way, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi sent a defiant tweet: "We respect the 3 percent. We are among the few who do. We therefore don't expect lessons from Europe but the 300 billion euros of investments."

Renzi referred to a European Commission proposal to get 300 billion euros ($388 billion) in public and private investment to revive the economy.

Dijsselbloem said that issue would be taken up by the wider meeting of European Union finance ministers on Saturday.

___

McHugh reported from Frankfurt, Germany. Juergen Baetz in Brussels contributed to this report.

Magnus Energy Chief Sued by Broker Over Stock Rout

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-12/magnus-energy-chief-sued-by-broker-over-stock-rout.html

Magnus Energy Chief Sued by Broker Over Stock Rout

A Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) brokerage sued the managing director of Magnus Energy Group Ltd. (MAGE) in Singapore to recover an unpaid trading debt.

Lim Kuan Yew owed DMG & Partners Securities Pte S$1.77 million ($1.4 million) for Blumont Group Ltd. and Asiasons Capital Ltd. shares bought in October, according to a lawsuit with the Singapore High Court. Singapore trading rules allow investors three days to pay for their stock purchases.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore and the police are investigating suspected stock-trading irregularities related to drops in Blumont, Asiasons and LionGold Corp. in early October 2013 that slashed $6.9 billion off the combined value of the shares. Magnus has been asked to assist in the probe, including providing electronic data and trading records of two executives.

Michelle Chia, a DMG spokeswoman, declined to comment. DMG is a venture betweenMalaysia’s RHB Capital Bhd (RHBC) and Deutsche Bank. Lim, who also traded in LionGold shares, according to court papers, didn’t answer four phone calls to his office.

Magnus Energy has said its business won’t be affected by the probe. Magnus Energy fell 7.7 percent to 1.2 Singapore cents as of 12:01 p.m. in trading in the city, extending this year’s slump to 64 percent.

DMG’s lawyers have tried unsuccessfully on three occasions to serve the lawsuit on Lim in Singapore, according to court papers filed last month. The brokerage said in court papers it’s attempting to serve Lim in Malaysia, where he’s believed to be residing.

Asiasons, Blumont and LionGold have said they don’t know what caused the sudden declines, which spurred brokers to clamp down on margin lending and dented trading sentiment.

Stock trading volume in the city tumbled about 32 percent from a year earlier to a daily average of S$1.05 billion this year through yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The case is DMG and Partners Securities v Lim Kuan Yew, S694/2014. Singapore High Court.

To contact the reporters on this story: Andrea Tan in Singapore at atan17@bloomberg.net; Jonathan Burgos in Singapore at jburgos4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Douglas Wong at dwong19@bloomberg.netDave McCombs, Terje Langeland

Blumont takes 43% stake in uranium miner

Source: http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium/companies/others/blumont-takes-43-stake-uranium-miner-20140912

Blumont takes 43% stake in uranium miner

BLUMONT Group now holds a 43.08 per cent stake in privately held uranium miner Azarga Resources after converting US$19.1 million worth of convertible notes.

The notes were converted into Azarga stock at 50 US cents per share. Azarga is not listed, so there is no open-market price available for the shares.

The notes were issued as part of a convertible facility provided by Blumont's wholly-owned subsidiary Powerlite Ventures to Azarga, under which Azarga could draw up to US$21 million in cash.

As part of the facility, Azarga will issue convertible notes to Powerlite upon drawing down the facility, with the notes to be eventually converted to Azarga shares at 50 US cents per share.

Follow Up On JAPFA

Follow Up On JAPFA

This post is drafted for a friend who followed me on JAPFA

My Message to him is as follow:

1. I have not sold any of my 25 lots of Japfa. And I will formal post a performance review if I ever sell it.
   
   
2. Japfa reached a height of 94cents before plunging back to current price, and I see 2 main reasons for this:
   
   
• Japfa posted 34% decline in profit in 1H. This is pretty much expected for a newly listed firm. Most business prior to listing would manage their earning to secure the best possible valuation after which they will take a big bath to write down all previous losses. But longer term wise, this is still a profitable business due to a favorable industry setup. More analysis on the industry is available from this article .
  
  
• Fear of Fed might be hiking interest rate, which might cause a currency crisis in developing countries. A few nations and Indonesia who have weak reserve become the likely target. I have already mentioned this risk in my earlier assessment of Japfa (refer to it here). Despite the fact that Indonesia was attacked several times in the recent years, I do not foresee a full scale currency flight happening in Indonesia as Fed is pretty responsible this time round. At least it has the courtesy to announce the date at which QE program would be tapered. According to Economic Theories, such announcement allows investors in developing nations to retreat orderly instead running for exit.
  
  
3. I am usually a longer term investor with time frame ranging from 3 months to 1 year. Thus shorter term fluctuation usually isn't much of a problem to me.
   
   
4. I am a price taker:My portfolio size is small and diversified, that means I can't move the market. My strategy only entails the following:
• Trying to foresee possible prospects which the market fails to foresee. 
• Picking the right counters
• Wait for the market to see what I saw. (usually only when news start to report)
• Let the market push the price to where I am aiming
• I take the profit.
  
  
5. Short term market fluctuation tend to base upon sentiment which I have no control on. Take First Sponsor as an example, I have shorted at $1.44 and expected it to fall till $0.94 within 2 weeks (You can refer to my call on First Sponsor here). As soon as the counter got listed, price indeed moved down quickly and decisively. The management soon came in to shore up confidence by buying shares from the market. While First Sponsor's bad fundamental does not improve just because of their actions, they do improved the market sentiment and prevented the share price from falling further. As a result price now stuck at $1.27 and the only thing I could do is to wait for market to return to its rationality.

Fundamental always prevail in long term.

Cheers